Scott on Iraq
A Letter from Scott Syme
This letter is in response to the article by BG Walsh in the Nov 5, 2007 issue of the Army Times.The oil and electrical sectors are only a part of the equation, not the true key or center of gravity for the reconstruction of Iraq. While it is certainly true that the oil and electrical sectors are important to Iraq (with the oil sector providing badly needed capital), if we want to make real strides in reconstructing Iraq we must focus on long term employment opportunities. If you look at the number of long term jobs provided by all the money the US and Iraq has spent to help reconstruct these two sectors, they are minimal compared to the amount spent. Using a balanced approach to grow the agriculture and all manufacturing sectors (not just the oil sector) will provide many more long term jobs which translate into faster economic growth and quicker reconstruction. The agricultural sector is estimated to be the single largest employment sector in Iraq and has huge cultural significance. The "so what" of that is the US gets out of Iraq quicker with fewer casualties and a more favorable outcome vs. a less favorable outcome.
I agree that Iraq's oil sector is critical to their being able to pay for their own reconstruction but it is also part of the problem. The citizens don't see the impact of exporting more oil because it only employs a small percentage of the population and the oil revenues are not distributed to the people. Another issue with the oil sector is the susceptibility of single source economies to graft and corruption. There is a tendency for those in power to line their pockets at the expense of the people. Hopefully, with the current extremely high oil prices the Iraqis will be able to start focusing some of that money toward improvements in their manufacturing sector as well as their agricultural sector. But there in lies a problem; hope is not a course of action. Iraq must grow their agricultural and other manufacturing sectors with this oil money.
The issue with the Iraqi electrical sector is how they produce electricity. Much of their electrical production is from electrical plants that burn crude oil or is diesel powered. In order to properly maintain these plants they have to be shut down periodically to clean them. This results in a significant drop in electrical power while facing a daily increase in demand. Another dilemma created by the drop in electrical production is their ability to refine oil to sell and most importantly, to refine oil to feed the electrical power plants. Without one you cannot have the other. Estimates are that the Iraqis will never be able to meet demand with their current electrical system and their best solution is to purchase power from Turkey and Kuwait.
A balanced holistic approach to reconstruction is what was needed from the start. Too much of the 20.9 billion US dollars was spent on projects that were disjointed and did not work in unison to accomplish an overarching plan. What was and is still needed is an overarching plan for each segment of the Iraqi economy to bring about sustained economic growth providing long term employment opportunities for Iraq. Additionally, private investment is the true key to reconstructing Iraq's economy.
These are good lessons learned and I hope in the future we will not make the same mistakes because we will be doing this again; hopefully in a proactive atmosphere and not after kinetic operations. By the way, the latest appropriation for the Iraq War includes $1,000,000,000.00 US for reconstruction.
I am an Army Reserve Colonel who served in the Strategy Section, Strategy Plans and Assessment, Multi National Forces Iraq from Sep 04 to Jun 05.
Scott Alan Syme, Colonel U.S. Army Reserve
